Middle East Tensions Boost Gold Prices

Yesterday on Wednesday, we believed that the market was betting on a Federal Reserve rate cut, as well as tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of the standoff between North and South Korea, which supported the rebound in gold. Therefore, we suggested that in terms of operations, one should pay attention to the support at $2650, followed by $2644, and the resistance at $2668 (the upper rail of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, the high points on Monday and Tuesday), followed by $2685 (the historical high).

Looking at the subsequent trend, gold slightly fell to $2658 and stabilized, continuing the rebound trend from Wednesday, and rose to $2670 where it encountered resistance (the upper rail of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, which slightly moved up with the rise in gold prices). Entering the European trading session, gold broke through upwards and reached a high of $2685, encountering resistance at the historical high point. Overall, gold has maintained a rebound trend since the $2600 integer position, approaching the historical high, and still shows strong performance.

Wolfinance star analyst Huang Lichen believes that although the market's expectation for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in November has been reduced to 25 basis points, supporting the US dollar to refresh its two-month high, it has formed some suppression on the rise of gold. However, under the support of geopolitical tensions, especially the concern about the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, it still helps gold to rebound continuously and once touched the historical high.

In terms of news, Federal Reserve policy expectations and geopolitical situations are still the key factors leading the trend of gold. Recently, Federal Reserve officials have spoken about the need to be cautious about rate cuts and adopt smaller cuts, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's policy expectations and causing some restrictions on the gold rally. The situation in the Middle East remains tense. On Tuesday, Israel rejected the proposal to cease fire in Lebanon, and Hezbollah also threatened to expand the scope of attacks, which has driven the upgrade of risk aversion.

On the daily chart, gold has rebounded from above the $2600 integer position and once touched the historical high, showing relatively strong performance. For gold support, pay attention to the 4-hour MA10 moving average at $2668, followed by the 4-hour Bollinger Bands' middle rail at $2660; for gold resistance, pay attention to the historical high of $2685, which is also the high point on Wednesday and the position of the daily Bollinger Bands' upper rail. Breaking through here is expected to test the $2700 integer position. The 5-day moving average forms a golden cross, the RSI indicator forms a death cross and turns upward, and the KDJ and RSI indicators form a golden cross, showing that the gold bulls are dominant.

Gold intraday reference: Although the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policy expectations has increased, causing some restrictions on the gold rally, the concern about the escalation of the situation in the Middle East still supports the rise of gold. It is suggested to pay attention to the strength of the fall and mainly do long at low levels. The support below is $2668, followed by $2660, and the resistance above is $2685, followed by $2700.